At present, it seems that this phase of bottom fishing and rebound trading has not been successful, which fully proves how difficult it is to go against the trend in a downward trend. But after staying in this market for a long time, I can't help but want to go long. In theory, buying when BRS=100 and selling when BRS returns to 0 is a completed wave trade. I have retested the historical data of BRS signals and found that the success rate of rebounding based on the signal during the bull bear transition period is approximately 70%. And there are also some uncertain factors, which I can give an example of (for the convenience of everyone, I have adjusted the BTC price to the blue line): (Figure 1) Similar to the annotation 2 in Figure 1, BRS only touched 100 once and immediately fell, while at this time, BTC's slight consolidation is likely to fail. Because after that, when BRS rises to 100 again, BTC will fall. If we buy for the first time and sell when BRS returns to 0, we lose money. So, what we need to see is that 'BRS can be maintained at 100 for a certain period of time' - that is, allowing panic to continue releasing, after which when BRS runs towards the zero axis, BTC will rebound synchronously. But there is also a problem here: During the time when BRS remained at 100, BTC fluctuated up and down. That is to say, when BRS first reaches 100, the price may not necessarily be the lowest point. For example, at 1/3/4 of the annotations in Figure 1, prices have varying degrees of drawdown. In response to this, I backtracked the data from the past 10 years, and overall, the average drawdown was around -13%, with the largest one being -25% (only once). (Figure 2) Returning to the current situation, it is evident that the BRS has been maintained for some time after reaching 100, and is not in a "sharp" shape. Therefore, there is a 70% chance of success here. We recorded that when BRS reached 100 this time, the price of BTC was $75992; According to historical backtesting, fluctuations of around -13% thereafter are within the normal range, ranging from $65000 to $66000. So the question here is, if we buy at $75000 and BTC falls below the psychological threshold of $70000, should we continue to buy and spread the cost? Should we stop losses first and then look for opportunities? '' I'm sorry! I can't give any advice. Because each of us has different levels of capital, risk preferences, time costs, and position control; But one thing to remember is that the strategy you choose should not make you feel scared and stay up all night! Leave the green mountains here, don't worry about running out of firewood .....