Did Kevin Walsh end the crypto super cycle by cutting interest rates but not releasing water? These days, all assets on the internet have been in a miserable state Even gold and silver were kicked down the stairs, Bitcoin is even more extreme, following the trend of decline rather than rise The culprit behind all of this is Kevin Warsh, who is about to take office. Everyone is still asking the old question: Is he a hawk or a dove? Will there be a rate cut? Will it release water? But what really needs to be asked is: If interest rate cuts no longer equal QE, will the super cycle of encryption still hold? My answer is: The form may change, but the trend cannot be stopped. 1. Walsh vs Powell: The difference is not in interest rates, it's in whether to print money or not The core of the Powell era is: Interest rate cuts+QE+balance sheet expansion+bottoming out asset prices. The market has been trained as a conditioned reflex: Interest rate cuts=water releases=risk assets take off. And what Walsh needs to do is: Reduce interest rates, but at the same time insist on: balance sheet reduction Monetary discipline No longer monetizing fiscal deficits in a word: Money will become cheaper, but water will not overflow. This is the reason for the recent strange phenomenon: Precious metals fall, encryption is not strong, but AI stocks are held by funds. 2. For AI companies: This is not the technology market, it is the institutional dividend Walsh is a clear AI bulls. He believes that AI is a structural deflationary force and also a fiscal tool. This is also why Palantir has been revalued by the market as a 'institutional infrastructure': SBA loan audit, Fannie Mae risk control, integration of medical and financial data. The result is a differentiation: Companies that make money through opacity are being revalued, Companies that make money through transparency and auditing are revalued higher. For example, companies like Humana, which heavily rely on complex reimbursement systems, have started to face pressure. 3. Regarding encryption: Short term discomfort, but super cycles are not dead Many people are concerned about: Did Walsh end the super cycle of encryption? From the perspective of a 'liquidity bull market', it is indeed more difficult. Because he supports interest rate cuts but opposes QE. But Walsh is not hostile to encryption itself. He once said a very straightforward sentence: If you're under 40 years old, Bitcoin is your new gold This means that encryption is moving from: Adversarial system → Entering the system. short-term No water release, slow rise, and more severe differentiation. long-term: Institutionalization, compliance, and infrastructure will continue to be promoted. The super cycle will not disappear, Just transformed from a money printing bull to a system bull. 4. Regarding gold and silver: the old safe haven logic is loosening The sharp decline of gold and silver is essentially: The premise of unlimited printing of money is starting to waver. In the past, buying gold was a gamble: The depreciation of the US dollar and the permanent implementation of QE. And Walsh's framework is: Shrinking balance sheet+fiscal discipline+strong US dollar. The old hedging logic is becoming ineffective. 5. Conclusion: Encryption is not dead, it's just a different way of life If the future is: Interest rate cuts+no QE+AI improves productivity+fiscal accountability The market will become: Risk assets are no longer flying together Structure and narrative are more important Adoption is more important than liquidity In this environment: AI is the institutional dividend, Precious metals are no longer the only safe haven, And encryption will be more like a real financial infrastructure. So the problem is not: Will Kevin Walsh end the encryption cycle? But rather: When encryption no longer relies on printing money to survive, can it continue to grow? My answer is: In the short term, it is more torturous, But the long-term direction will not be blocked. The super cycle is still ongoing, Just from the 'water buffalo', Becoming a 'system cow'.