1. Can Bitcoin in OTC balances really be “depleted”? Do you truly believe that? 2. Even if OTC balances were somehow near empty, there isn’t only demand to buy Bitcoin in OTC markets. There is also demand to sell. So why does the idea persist that if OTC balances run low, price must automatically go up? That logic isn’t much different from saying if the four-year cycle breaks, price must still go higher. If supply in OTC markets is really drying up to this extent, then why does the price look the way it does right now? To be clear, OTC buying demand is declining, while selling demand is actually increasing. So the real question is this: where, and how, is that selling pressure supposed to be absorbed when there isn’t enough OTC demand to take it? Let me give a more intuitive example. Assume OTC balances are already near empty. If a client wants to sell 6,000 BTC through IBIT, that order would eventually have to be routed through market makers and hit exchanges, rather than being fully absorbed by OTC desks. If you want to argue for a bullish case, it would make far more sense to say that OTC balances can’t really be depleted in the first place.(mignolet)