It's been a long time since I had the motivation to finish reading such a long content. Perhaps it's because as a post-2000s generation, I resonate with the ideas of @ 0xPickleCati, the cucumber cat. After reading the entire article, I have a deep impression. Even though I have recently closed a lot of positions, I still fell into a trap on intospace. Just now, I learned another piece of bad news that Moonbird's NFT needs to be unlocked for 2 years to obtain airdrops. In my opinion, this is almost zero. I bought some moon birds before, but now I'm afraid I won't even be able to recover the remaining cost The constant setbacks have made me reflect on where the problem lies during this period of liquidity depletion, is it just a liquidity issue? I don't think so. According to the consensus upgrade criteria of Cucumber Cat, even though liquidity was poor in previous bear markets, there were always new things like Inscription, FriendTech, and even pre-sales, with criticized ref disks like Soon making many people earn over $100000 in profits. Think carefully about the reason for the fight at that time: team real name+SVM track has a good example of issuing coins+CEX has a certain platform and association Is it a bit familiar... In my opinion, this should be considered a typical case of the To CEX simple mode stage Based on my own experience of about 3 years in the industry, the projects I have experienced can be roughly divided into the following categories: - To Vitalik， Because there are a large number of believers of V God who believe that Ethereum is the future, and it is mainly composed of a series of infrastructure, ZK projects, etc., with V, there are people willing to pay for it - To VC， As long as the project can obtain the endorsement of high-quality VC, it can be widely recognized in the market. For example, Blur and FriendTech are actually supported by @ paradigm, and there are several signal VCs who are willing to pay for them - To CEX， Everyone has found that as long as something is stained with CEX, it can definitely make money. With the golden signboard of CEX, some people are willing to pay. Half of this era has passed, but not entirely. Large VC projects can no longer be called for, so only memes can continue So now the simple model of To CEX is over, listing on the exchange no longer fully constitutes a guarantee of price, and people no longer fully pay for it. What is the next stage, To MM？ River is one of the best examples recently, but the game difficulty of such projects will definitely be higher, which is certain, and the vast majority of participants will lose money, which will shorten the life cycle of individual traders So we can see that in recent years, no matter what kind of entrepreneurship the project is aimed at, there has not been a true To community. At this stage, let's not talk about product issues, it's all just speculation. For example, a few days ago when the rocket and aerospace market doubled, everyone thought of making a profit and then leaving. In fact, when buying, they had already thought about the concept of making a good profit, but the continuity was undoubtedly very poor. Because these coins, apart from their speculative value, currently do not have any "consensus" and even have weak narratives At its core, it is the same as what she said, 'No new element can make new participants form a synergy'. After TRUMP, what narrative can surpass him and establish consensus? I don't have an answer to this question, but I have two viewpoints that may explain why the cryptocurrency industry gives people a sense of despair and confusion that 'this element will not be produced again': 1. Capital outflow. BTC is far from outperforming commodities such as precious metals and hot sectors in the US stock market. Funds are voting with their feet, ETFs continue to flow out, not to mention other crypto assets 2. The siphon of talent. At present, the cryptocurrency industry cannot attract good projects and developers due to several reasons, including social status, opportunity cost, and traditional reputation. High quality developers can naturally earn both fame and fortune safely in web2, so why should they release their excellent products on crypto? Especially, many capable developers themselves do not want to 'make quick money'. This is a problem. It is an objective fact that both talent and funds are being siphoned off, and the cryptocurrency sector currently lacks attractiveness. So there is still a viewpoint discussed during the Okx New Year's Eve dinner, which is the rotation of sectors. Perhaps we can wait for the inflow moment of rotation, which is the simple model of liquidity regression. This is the result of the establishment of a new consensus, but no one has predicted the future for this reason yet. (Of course, predicting the market may be one answer, which is why I am optimistic about this track, even though the most lucrative segment of the prediction market may not belong to the cryptocurrency circle at present.) I have always had an action of not predicting, but following. When people pay for the concept of currency circle speculation, it is a foam and a proof of liquidity. But there is more to look forward to in the future for crypto, such as the true popularization of AI agents? The technological singularity has not yet arrived, but once it does, I believe the existing production relations will definitely be transformed. So perhaps that will be the future of so-called onboard bills on chain. Before that, waiting and surviving at the table is the most important thing