Hai Ge observes daily 20260121: core viewpoint Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin fell below $89000, with 17 bearish indicators out of 32 and only 9 bullish indicators, indicating a significant advantage of bearish forces. The market is showing a pattern of macroeconomic pressure over on chain confidence, and short-term risks are intensifying. My strategy has shifted towards defense: reducing positions, strictly maintaining stop loss, and waiting for clear turning signals from the macro or financial side before considering counterattacks. ✍️ Breaking down the power of long and short positions 17 areas dominated by bears 1. Macro pressure is intense: the expectation of interest rate cuts is delayed, CPI/non farm data is bearish, and US10Y is strengthening, which suppresses risk assets. 2. Continuous outflow of funds: The USDC/USDT exchange rate continues to rebound, ETF net outflow, and exchange net inflow increase selling pressure. 3. Overall cooling of sentiment: the enthusiasm of institutions and retail investors is weak, the capital outflow of counterfeit coins, and Trump TACO indicators continue to interfere with the market. Long support (9 items) 1. Confidence on the chain has not collapsed: Giant Whale addresses are still increasing their holdings (holding 100+BTC address changes are bullish), and long-term holders' chips are stable. 2. Structural opportunity retention: The growth of stablecoins provides potential buying opportunities, and the increase in the market value of Bitcoin indicates that funds have not completely withdrawn from mainstream currencies. Uncertainty (6 items) There are different opinions on the market stage, the direction of NUPL's profit and loss status is unclear, and the funding rate is relatively cold but not absolutely bearish. Key signal monitoring Downward risk trigger point: If it falls below 88000 (weekly low), it may explore the support zone of 85000- $86000. Confirmation signal: ETF has experienced net outflows for 3 consecutive days and the US dollar index DXY continues to strengthen. Signals to be observed for rebound: Breaking through $92000 (original support turning resistance) and stabilizing, accompanied by increased trading volume (150% increase in daily trading volume compared to 20 days). Macro improvement: such as the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals or inflation data falling beyond expectations. Operational framework Position adjustment: The spot position has been reduced to 30%, with 70% cash retained. Reserve core positions (BTC/ETH) and clear positions in altcoin trading. Zero the leverage position to avoid liquidation risks under increased volatility. Batch bottom fishing conditions: Conservative: Approaching $85000 (with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in the 2025 bull market) and an RSI<30, build positions in batches of 5%. Radical type: Increase volume to recover $92000 and maintain a stable 4-hour chart. When the retracement is not broken, take a light position and try long. Risk control bottom line: Stop loss rule: The single loss shall not exceed 1.5% of the total funds. If unable to maintain a stable position of $88000 within 3 days, further reduce the position to 20%. Summary: The current market is dominated by macroeconomic and financial factors, and although there is support on the chain, it is difficult to reverse the decline alone. Discipline is higher than prediction, and cash is also a position. (Note: The viewpoint is strictly based on the status of 32 indicators and does not constitute investment advice.)