I just saw that A16Z has raised $15 billion and said that this money will account for 18% of the total annual venture capital in the United States to ensure its leading position in the technology industry. It also emphasizes starting from AI and Crypto. I am particularly curious: What Crypto project did A16Z invest in to put this matter at such a high strategic level? So I used AI to do a simple search and flipped through several of their cases in the past six months. As a result, the projects that A16Z has spent the most money on recently are actually the two predicted markets, Kalshi and PolyMarket Especially Kalshi, they have led the investment for two consecutive rounds, and the specific amount has not been disclosed. Considering that the D-round is the first lead investment; Although participating in the E-round, the valuation has already reached $11 billion. I estimate that in just these two rounds of Kalshi, A16Z may have invested around 200 million US dollars 。 This is 200 million US dollars. In other words, the total amount of 15 billion US dollars raised by A16Z this time is only enough to invest in dozens of projects like Kalshi from a pure monetary perspective. To be honest, I was a bit surprised. Technically speaking, predicting the market may not necessarily be worth much money. I even suspect that a small team of 10 people, as long as they have experience in matching transactions and cooperate with some Vibe coding, can create a product that is neither flashy nor dark. If we have to say that Kalshi is a moat, it may be its franchise rights, after all, it has been in a long lawsuit with CFTC and finally obtained a DCM license. ---Dividing line--- However, on the other hand, the story of predicting the market can be small or big. Just like yesterday's incident: a news spokesperson suddenly stopped at a very strange point in time, causing a major reversal in the overall market trend prediction (although this is most likely a coincidence). So there is a viewpoint that predicting the future of the market may in turn affect real-world outcomes - for example, if you bet enough money, you may "push" a certain outcome to happen in reality. If we tell stories in this direction, it is not impossible to elevate them to the level of 'national interests'. For example, opening up some positions on the politics of other countries in the prediction market, such as the inauguration of a certain president or the defeat of a certain election, and allowing capital to complete some unknown transactions here, may actually make it happen in reality. ---Dividing line--- You said Kalshi has some barriers, but it seems like there really isn't much. Although there are not many DCM licenses in the United States, there are still a few. On the contrary, these VCs are pouring money into the market, which can turn the track into an oligopoly structure. Whoever you vote for is more like the 'boss'; No matter how good the skills are, it may be difficult to stand out without investing in anyone. So, the A16Z can also justify itself. If one day a market opening is predicted, it can directly change the political landscape of other countries. Don't worry, it really conforms to the so-called capital investment protection of national interests ..