Phyrex|Jan 04, 2026 20:52
I am quite familiar with Vietnam, and many people around me are investing in Vietnam, including real estate. Let me briefly explain the reasons for the rise in housing prices in Vietnam.
It's actually quite simple, it's benchmarking against China, but not against China's real estate industry, but against China's manufacturing industry. Due to some well-known reasons, many foreign companies have relocated their production bases to Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and even Da Nang with different goals.
We often say that Ho Chi Minh City benchmarks Shanghai, Hanoi benchmarks Beijing, and Da Nang benchmarks Chengdu.
Ho Chi Minh City is the leader of the manufacturing industry, as well as the headquarters of many Vietnamese foreign companies and the center of financial services in Vietnam. It plays the role of an economic engine, which is why I say Ho Chi Minh City is like Shanghai.
Hanoi, on the other hand, is the center of political administration, central enterprises, and basic industries, leaning more towards power and resource centers, making it more like Beijing.
There are now many "contract manufacturing" in the field of technology in Da Nang, which is very similar to Chengdu.
In terms of geopolitics, South Korea, which is currently dominant in Vietnam, has Samsung accounting for about 15% of Vietnam's GDP. This is still after the decline, as Samsung accounted for 25% of Vietnam's GDP at its peak in previous years.
South Korea is the largest cumulative foreign direct investor in Vietnam's history, so many Vietnamese economies and developments are speculating on South Korea's operations. Many friends may not know that North Vietnam is not very friendly to China due to historical reasons, while South Vietnam is relatively more open.
Returning to the main topic, Vietnam's housing prices are not benchmarked against China's real estate industry itself, but against China's manufacturing migration stage back then. The fundamental reason why China's housing prices have truly taken off in the past two decades is not because the real estate industry is imaginative, but because the development of manufacturing, foreign investment, urbanization progress, and employment gap absorption have formed a long-term, stable, and replicable population and income growth model. Today's Vietnam is in a period of rapid development in China back then.
So the underlying logic behind the rise in housing prices in Vietnam is not real estate, but outsourcing. The rise in housing prices in South Vietnam is mainly due to real demand and population inflows. It's like Shanghai, many people may not know that houses in Shanghai in the 1980s are not valuable either. The rise in housing prices in North Vietnam relies more on policies, resources, and phased expectations, and is more like an administrative center.
If you have a better understanding of Vietnam, you should know that the housing prices in Vietnam have not risen comprehensively, but have structurally increased, mainly in the economic and political centers.
It is not China's real estate foam theory that really determines the trend of house prices in Vietnam, but whether foreign capital will continue to keep the supply chain and middle class life in Vietnam. In fact, this is very similar to Shanghai. Many people know that the toughest buyers in Shanghai are not locals, but rather out of town people. Wealthy out of town talents are the main reason for supporting Shanghai's real estate market.
Vietnam is no exception, but it is not all Vietnamese people who support Vietnam's real estate market, but many foreigners. These foreigners in Vietnam are more focused on "work and life" rather than simply speculating on real estate. As long as Vietnam's pillar industry is still contract manufacturing, there will still be opportunities for housing prices in Vietnam, but the price will only increase in some areas, but the rate of increase will slow down.
PS: The Vietnamese stock market is worth paying attention to!
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