**[Economist: The Probability of the Federal Reserve Cutting Rates Again in January is Extremely Low]** Senior economist at Oxford Economics, Bob Schwartz, previously stated in an interview that despite ongoing seasonal fluctuations, the number of initial jobless claims remains within a range consistent with a relatively stable labor market. While the current level aligns with a slowdown in hiring, it does not signal a further deterioration in the hiring environment. Schwartz noted that as trade policy uncertainties diminish, the outlook for the manufacturing sector will improve. The current improvement in manufacturing output remains structural, but the momentum for output growth is expected to spread to more areas. Meanwhile, driven by advancements in AI-related investments, the output of electrical equipment may achieve stronger growth. The drag effect caused by automotive manufacturing output is also expected to gradually weaken. Schwartz believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in January is extremely low. The current pace of job growth is slowing, and as workers' bargaining power diminishes, the pressure for wage increases is gradually easing. Inflationary drivers, particularly service sector inflation linked to labor costs, are showing signs of subsiding. The most notable feature of the labor market is not the growth in nonfarm payrolls but the rise in the unemployment rate—behind this phenomenon is a large influx of people re-entering the job market. This trend precisely indicates that the driving force behind more Americans returning to the workforce is increasing economic pressure, rather than confidence in the economic outlook. (Yicai Global)