[Federal Reserve's 2026 Interest Rate Path Divergence Intensifies, Potentially Impacting Crypto Market Performance] The Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts in 2025, with the latest occurring on December 10, lowering the federal funds rate range to 3.5%–3.75%. The latest policy outlook indicates that there may only be room for one rate cut throughout 2026, with significant internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the interest rate path, leaving the market lacking clear guidance. The current median forecast suggests that the interest rate will be around 3.6% by the end of 2025 and approximately 3.4% by the end of 2026. According to CME Group data, investors estimate about a 20% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's January meeting, rising to approximately 45% for the March meeting. Analysts believe that the labor market, inflation trends, and economic growth remain key variables for policy decisions, while the uncertainty surrounding the end of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term and the appointment of new leadership could also impact the crypto market.