Trading or Investing: A Lying Profit Method Suitable for Everyone Today is the second to last day of 2025, and the S&P 500 is still approaching a new high. I spend almost most of my time sharing BTC content with everyone; Today, let's talk about a slightly different topic and also take a look back My most successful transaction in the US stock market this year (although also the only one): Firstly, a brief review of the transaction ： one ️⃣ At the beginning of this year, I cleared all positions in the US stock market, including BTC (https://(((x.com))/market_gegar/status/18991072010266447) two ️⃣ On April 8th of this year, it was publicly announced that the full position of the US stock market would be bought at the bottom (see citation below) three ️⃣ Addendum: The Magic National Security Fund (https://((x.com))/market_gegar/status/1953631648224059577) is the basis for bottom fishing As I emphasized earlier during the bottom fishing: I only do index investment in the US stock market. Many friends may not be able to distinguish the difference between "investment" and "trading", I have talked a little before, but today I will formally talk about this topic again. In my personal bias: ➡️ Index investment=simply eating the market beta ➡️ Trading=Hunting for alpha (excess returns) in the market Old friends may know that I do 'index investing' in the US stock market, In the crypto sector, the focus is primarily on "trading". The reason behind it is simple: because the crypto market is very young compared to the US stock market, The long-standing US stock market is' more efficient ', according to the efficient market hypothesis, The higher the efficiency of the market, the more difficult it is to capture alpha. I believe that within a limited time frame, we all need to maximize the output per unit of time, With equal effort, it is clearly easier to capture alpha in the young crypto market; But at the same time, from a defensive perspective, I don't want to miss out on the stable beta of the US stock market, Therefore, I will also allocate some of my funds to the stock market, while ensuring that I can enjoy the beta, It can also reduce the overall volatility of the body ✅ I know that many friends who have been in the cryptocurrency industry for a long time do not even see the rise of the US stock index, And put forward the fallacy of 'because I have small funds, I have to fight hard'. I have discussed the relevant topics in detail in the "Trading Concept Supplement" series of articles, Interested friends can refer to the following link ， I won't go into too much detail here: Trading Concept Supplement (6): Goal Management&Benchmark https://((((x.com))))/market_beggar/status/1911966289549304269 Trading Concept Supplement (7): The Correct Starting Point for Small Funds https://((((x.com))))/market_beggar/status/1919574602029924745 // Returning to the title of this article, 2025 is coming to an end. If you are also a friend who cannot see the rise of the US stock market, Perhaps this moment is the best time to test one's own performance and undergo mental questioning: Did you outperform the S&P 500 index in terms of performance this year ❓」 When comparing performance, please remember to use the 'return on total assets' as the calculation benchmark, And we cannot compare the performance of different parts separately, otherwise we are deceiving ourselves. For example: You can't just say you won the S&P 500 just because you spent 5% of your funds on a meme golden dog, Because you may dare to invest 100% of your funds in the S&P 500, but not necessarily in memes. If your performance outperforms the S&P 500, then congratulations with utmost sincerity; If you have been busy for a year but still underperform the performance of simply holding the S&P 500, Besides focusing on introspection, you may also need to consider whether you are suitable for it The transaction. I am not here to pour cold water on everyone: ➡️ Countless scientific evidence has proven that it is as difficult as climbing the sky to outperform the S&P 500 in the long run (That's also why Grandpa Buffett can be called the 'Stock God') ➡️ Everyone's time allocation is different, for example, office workers may not have enough time to study the market Therefore, if you feel like you are constantly busy, chasing news, and staring at the K-line crazily entering and exiting, The final performance did not beat simply holding the S&P 500, Perhaps you can consider joining the big family of 'index investing'. The only thing needed for index investment is to be friends with time, which means "continuous buying"+"long-term holding", The process is very tedious because you don't have to do anything, just leave it on. In terms of speed, the average annualized rate of return is about 10% compound interest, and it depends on whether it is fast or not. btw， If you feel bored, you can open the monthly chart of S&P 500, The 45 degree upward trend that has been maintained for decades may be the most effective belief // Finally, on the right side of the attached figure are the annual forecasts of major institutions for the S&P 500 in Q1 2025, Many friends have asked me for their opinions on this part before. My answer is always the same: 'There's no need to look.' ❌」。 Now that it's the end of the year, we can take a good look at their prediction accuracy, Moreover, most institutions just shout and shout casually, with very low reference value. The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone; I don't know if you are satisfied with your performance this year, please feel free to leave your opinions