DC大于C|12月 19, 2025 13:46
Yesterday, it was reminded that although the inflation data is positive, we cannot be too optimistic. As expected, the result is a "painted door" market trend.
Today, Japan's interest rate hike came as scheduled (with negative news coming), but the speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda was dovish
There is no clear direction for future interest rate hikes, and it is estimated that the next time will be after March next year, because Japan needs to collect a salary data on Q1, and after reading it, it will basically be after March. Friends who are interested can take a look at the situation of the Bank of Japan in the past 30 years, as we have discussed before.
As of the time of publication, the US Japan exchange rate is above 157. As long as the yen falls or fluctuates, it means that the cost of borrowing yen is still very low. Previously, the Japanese yen had negative interest rates, but now it has positive interest rates, but there is still room for improvement
For example, in the past, with negative interest rates, borrowing 100 yen only required a repayment of 99 yuan (the number is easy to understand), and then you could use the borrowed money to buy US bonds (which used to be very high, but now still have an interest rate of 3.75), US stocks, BTC, and so on. So, this interest rate trading is a guaranteed profit.
At the current positive interest rate, if you borrow 100 yen, you will have to repay 101 yuan, but the profit you earn from investing the borrowed money can still cover this interest, so this business is still profitable.
That's how it is now. As long as the market believes that the Japanese yen is weak, it's okay. This is not the case now, BTC has already shaken off the paint gate and its price has rebounded above 87.
At present, the US stock market is rising before the market, and the sentiment is good. Let's see how the US stock market goes tonight. With low liquidity over the weekend, the sentiment should not be very bad.
This magnificent week is finally coming to an end. Next week is the holiday. I think it depends on when Trump announces the new chairman of the Federal Reserve
Then the volatile market continued to endure. The trend is still early to rebound.
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