
蓝狐|Dec 17, 2025 05:13
The prediction market has a big opportunity in 2026, and that’s the well-known World Cup. Prediction markets have existed for several cycles, but it wasn’t until last year, after Polymarket made waves, that they climbed out of the “disproven track” category.
Currently, in terms of trading volume, the leading players in the market are Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion. Among them, Kalshi is a compliant, centralized prediction market. Let’s set that aside for now.
In decentralized prediction markets, the main players are Polymarket and Opinion. Both allow users to trade YES/NO contracts on real-world events using stablecoins.
What’s the main difference between the two?
The most striking difference is that Polymarket stands out in global events and fast-response markets, with deep liquidity and an established user base. On the other hand, Opinion is AI-driven, utilizing multiple models like OpenAI, Claude, and Gemini to automatically create markets, analyze events, and assist with insights, giving it a unique intelligent edge.
In terms of prediction focus, Polymarket delves deeply into politics, sports, crypto, and culture, while Opinion leans more toward macroeconomics, such as interest rates, inflation, employment, and geopolitics, while also covering crypto and global events.
As for fees and incentives, Polymarket currently has no platform fees or points system, whereas Opinion offers low fees along with a points-based incentive mechanism.
Overall, Polymarket impresses with its liquidity, zero fees, simple interface, and coverage of trending events. Opinion, on the other hand, shines with its AI assistance (auto-generated markets/data insights), points incentives, and high-frequency trading features.