[10x Research: Bitcoin Cycle Drivers Have Shifted to Politics and Liquidity] Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, stated that Bitcoin's four-year cycle still exists, but its primary driving factors have shifted to politics, liquidity, and election cycles, rather than halving events. The peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter, showing a stronger correlation with election cycles. Currently, Bitcoin has not strengthened due to rate cuts, as cautious decision-making by institutional investors and the Federal Reserve's wavering signals have slowed capital inflows. Before liquidity improves, Bitcoin is more likely to remain range-bound rather than experience a rapid surge.