On December 26th, options with a nominal value of approximately $23.8 billion will be concentrated and expire, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products. This means that the BTC derivatives market will experience a "concentrated clearing and repricing of risk exposure" at the end of the year, where prices may be structurally constrained before maturity, but uncertainty will increase after maturity. (Figure 1) From the data perspective, there are a large number of OI accumulations in the two places closest to the current BTC spot price, namely: 1. Put of $85000: 14674 BTC; This is clearly a Put concentration area, combined with the current BTC price around 90000, so this is a "protective Put" from OTM to mild ITM. 2. Call of $100000: 18116 BTC; This is the largest single point OI in the entire structure, and the motivation for this structure is to believe that it will be difficult to achieve 100000 BTC before 12/26; Or even if it goes up, they are willing to be delivered in 100000. From a scale perspective, this is not a retail behavior, but rather a large-scale long-term fund, most likely consisting of ETF hedge funds, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and other institutions that hold a large amount of BTC spot for a long time. Although OI includes both buyers and sellers, based on the exercise price position, expiration structure, and call combination relationship with the 10w exercise price, the Put at the 8.5w exercise price indicates that the buyer is the "active party", reflecting the strong downward risk hedging demand in the market at this price. Similarly, the large amount of Call OI accumulated at the exercise price of 100000 yuan is not essentially 'the market is bullish here', but rather long-term funds are willing to relinquish upward space above this price in exchange for current certainty in cash flow and overall controllable risk. By buying Put below and selling Call above, compress the distribution of BTC returns within an acceptable range. Under the premise that OI has been highly formed, this 8.5w-10w option corridor will have a structural impact on BTC prices before December 26th, with "implicit suppression at the top, passive buffering at the bottom, and fluctuations in the middle range". ------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits