What will happen to the cryptocurrency market after the December interest rate cut The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as scheduled, seemingly settling the dust, but the market's "expectation game" is still ongoing. The direction of the cryptocurrency market does not depend on the interest rate cut itself, but on the following six major expectations: Is this the beginning of a rate cut cycle or a one-time action? If it is the starting point of the cycle, the mid-term trend of Crypto is stronger; If it is only a symbolic interest rate cut, the market will enter a volatile range. What is the room for interest rate cuts in 2026? As long as interest rate futures start to price in more interest rate cuts, risk assets will strengthen again. 3. Direction of Real Interest Rate (10Y TIPS): The trend of BTC almost corresponds one-to-one with the actual interest rate. Real interest rates are declining → medium-term strong trend in encryption; Real interest rates are rising → pressure still exists. 4. Fiscal liquidity: Has TGA fallen? TGA Downward=Finance Putting Money Back into the Market This is more capable of driving Crypto's trend than 25bp. 5. ETF fund flow: The interest rate cut is just the background, What really drives the market is whether BTC/ETH ETFs continue to have net subscriptions. If ETFs continue to attract funds, the trend will not end due to the realization of favorable conditions. Will there be a narrative that can gather funds erupting? Can funds achieve a healthy diffusion cycle from BTC to ETH and mainstream narratives (such as AI/L2/RWA), This will determine whether the knockoff can initiate the next phase of the market and the height of the bull market. In conclusion, Interest rate cuts are not the end point, but the starting point of a new round of expectations. What truly determines the direction of the cryptocurrency market are the interest rate path, liquidity changes, institutional fund flows, and sector rotation structure over the next 12 months.