The evolution of the crypto prediction market is very interesting because it was once included in the "falsified" track, and it took ten years to achieve PMF (product market fit), which exceeded market expectations. Sometimes, in the field of encryption, drawing conclusions too early may not be appropriate. The concept of predicting the market itself is not new. It has existed in the field of encryption for a long time. In 2015, the Gnosis project was launched for development; In 2018, Augur was officially launched as a decentralized prediction market platform based on Ethereum, allowing users to create and predict future events and settle using cryptocurrency. In 2020, Polymarket (based on Polygon) was also launched, but it has always been marginalized. Due to regulatory factors, the business has been struggling. The initial monthly trading volume of Polymarket was only a few million dollars; Augur TVL plummeted nearly 80% after the 2020 election, dropping from its peak to millions of dollars. The overall industry TVL peak is hovering around 7 million US dollars, with a monthly trading volume of less than 100 million US dollars. Regulatory pressure (such as CFTC considering it a 'gamble') and Oracle's imperfections (easy to manipulate) further inhibit growth. The real outbreak of the entire prediction market only began in 2024. Especially, the 2024 US presidential election becomes a turning point. Polymarket's campaign forecast predicts a market trading volume of over 2.7 billion US dollars, with monthly trading on the entire platform skyrocketing from 62 million US dollars in May to 2.1 billion US dollars in October, an increase of over 30 times. The nominal trading volume for the whole year reached 16.3 billion US dollars, far exceeding the previous total. Why did it take ten years to achieve PMF? One is that there were technical and user experience barriers in the early encryption field. The concept of predicting the market is good, and it seems that there is a high demand, but when it comes to user experience, it almost excludes the vast majority of users. For example, early Augur was built on Ethereum L1 and had very high transaction costs. At that time, GAS was frighteningly high and the confirmation speed was still very slow. For ordinary users here, they also need to master wallets and complex interactive interfaces, which have significant learning costs. These high thresholds correspond to insufficient liquidity and users' concerns about manipulation. Secondly, regulatory pressure has always existed. The US CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) will predict the market as "gambling" or derivatives, and strengthen scrutiny after 2018. During this period, Augur was fined for betting on sensitive events; Polymarket paid a fine of $1.4 million in 2022 and withdrew from the United States. Even its founder Shayne Coplan (born in 1998) was raided by the FBI in his New York apartment and had his electronic devices confiscated (without arrest). The ambiguity of regulation has resulted in the inability of institutional funds to enter. Regulatory pressure has made it difficult to increase liquidity. The third is the change in market narrative. In the field of encryption from 2016 to 2018, most users were more focused on speculation rather than practical tools; The DeFi/NFT craze from 2020 to 2023 is distracting, with a predicted market TVL of only $7 million. Lack of mainstream event drive makes it difficult to accumulate liquidity. Fourthly, the oracle is immature and easily manipulated. And 2024 is a turning point, as mentioned above, the 2024 US election is a catalyst, but it's far more than that. 2024- Now, the prediction market is truly up. In addition to Polymarket, centralized prediction platform Kalshi has also emerged. By 2025, it is predicted that the market trading volume will reach 27.9 billion US dollars (a year-on-year increase of 210%), with a weekly peak value of 2.3 billion US dollars. The combined TVL of Polymarket and Kalshi will exceed 20 billion US dollars. Both are valued at billions of dollars. Predicting the market has suddenly become a hot commodity in the market. So, what are the driving factors? Contrary to the obstacles encountered between 2015 and 2024, these obstacles have been removed one by one, resulting in a qualitative improvement in user experience and other aspects. One is the change in technological barriers/user experience. Polygon and Base L2 networks have reduced gas fees to a few cents and increased transaction speed by 10 times. Polymarket and other platforms optimize the UI, support one click betting on stablecoins, and attract non crypto natives. In addition, DeFi has also undergone significant development, providing deep liquidity. For users, participating in the prediction market has become very convenient now. Kalshi is a centralized prediction platform that integrates with Robinhood and other platforms, making user participation more convenient. Secondly, there are regulatory changes. After the 2024 US election, regulators are pushing for crypto friendly policies. CFTC approves regulated platforms such as Kalshi in 2025. SEC/CFTC clarifies that "spot commodity encryption" is legal, and stablecoin legislation is passed through Congress. Although Switzerland has a blacklist overseas, the overall environment has shifted from hostility to support, with institutional funds pouring in (such as ICE investing $2 billion). Thirdly, there are changes in market narrative. This cycle does not have a particularly dominant narrative. And having real uses has become a focus of market attention. With the catalysis of the 24 year election forecast, Polymarket has expanded into sports, economy, technology, and other fields. Coupled with media promotion (such as CNN/Bloomberg reports), the spread of social networks has driven the popularity of the forecast market. Fourthly, both institutions and communities are promoting it, with a16z actively participating and creating a concept of "event driven financial infrastructure" from a narrative perspective. Community users are also actively participating, driving up TVL. Fifthly, it is predicted that the market will gradually evolve from "gambling" to a new type of signal, similar to providing real-time probability signals. An interesting conclusion from predicting the ten-year evolution of the market is that not all tracks that have been "falsified" necessarily have no PMF, sometimes it's just because the conditions are not yet mature. In the field of encryption, this phenomenon is particularly evident, as the infrastructure in the field was not perfect in the first decade (expensive/slow/poor user experience...), resulting in many attempts being unable to reach ordinary users smoothly. Perhaps some of the future Crypto Games/social/ai agents/pins/digital identities, etc., may have already come to an end, but there will still be opportunities for some tracks to showcase themselves again.