Phyrex|Dec 03, 2025 20:22
Fatigue, it's really exhausting. There were a lot of things I was supposed to write today, but I hardly had time to write them. Moreover, there's still one day left tomorrow, almost a whole day of walking, and I'm extremely tired both physically and mentally. The main reason is that there's still a lot of things to write, and I can't even stay up late. I even fell asleep sitting on the toilet. I can only try to wake up early tomorrow and write more.
Today, some data was released, among which the September data is no longer significant, almost all of it is data before the shutdown. The most important one should be ADP's small non farm payroll data. This data is really incredible, with the previous value adjusted from 42000 jobs to 47000 jobs, but the latest released data is actually negative at 32000 jobs. The employment situation in the United States is not optimistic, and after the data came out, CME's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December increased to 89%.
Fortunately, the current unemployment rate is a happy occasion for funerals. Everyone knows that the employment environment is not good, and there are some expectations for unemployment. Moreover, the rise in unemployment is being used by investors to increase the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. From what we can see now, at least that's the case.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, although there has been a slight increase in turnover rate. But it is mainly short-term investors, and the changes from earlier investors are not significant. Moreover, today's ADP data has increased investors' expectations for a rate cut in December. The US stock market has risen relatively well, and BTC has driven overall market sentiment.
From the data of URPD, there is no problem. The support position is quite stable, and there is no significant stance from high loss investors. The chip structure is still quite stable, and the key is next week's interest rate meeting.
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