[The Probability of a December Rate Hike by the Bank of Japan Surges Over 60%, Tightening Monetary Policy Seems Almost Certain] BlockBeats News, December 2: According to monitoring by PolyBeats, the prediction market for 'Will the Bank of Japan make a rate decision in December 2025?' experienced a dramatic shift yesterday. The previously balanced odds between 'a 25-basis-point rate hike' and 'no change' saw a significant change: the probability of a rate hike soared from 50% to 85%, while the probability of 'no change' plummeted from 50% to 14%. The direct driver of this market upheaval was a speech delivered by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda in Nagoya on December 1. Ueda's speech sent the clearest hawkish signal to date, with his tone shifting from a previously cautious stance to a proactive approach toward policy normalization. He explicitly stated that the Bank of Japan will 'weigh the pros and cons of raising policy rates and make a decision as appropriate' during its meeting on December 18–19. He also emphasized that the yen's weakness is a trend that 'may push inflation higher than in the past,' clearly indicating that the central bank is prepared to act under inflationary and exchange rate pressures. This stands in stark contrast to Ueda's remarks in October 2025, where he primarily highlighted uncertainties in the external economy, particularly the potential drag of U.S. trade policies and tariff risks on Japan's wage growth and corporate earnings. This risk-averse attitude led prediction markets to generally adopt a cautious outlook on rate hikes throughout November. However, Ueda's latest speech shifted the policy focus from 'external risks' to an emphasis on 'domestic inflation and exchange rate pressures,' quickly prompting traders to view a 25-basis-point rate hike in December as the baseline scenario.