Macro market analysis on December 22, 2025 Good morning, brothers. The recent market is very strange, and the expectation of short-term interest rate cuts has increased. The United States will cut interest rates in December. However, stubborn inflation and rising geopolitical risks, coupled with Japan's interest rate hikes, have led to negative sentiment. They are all small bearish, but when reflected on the market, it is a sharp drop. Nowadays, most old Bitcoin mining machines have fallen below the shutdown coin price, and miners are no longer making money. The investment payback period exceeds 3 years. The current market is concerned about the collapse of Micro Strategy (MSTR): The sharp drop in BTC has led this company to sell a large amount of BTC, which may also be a factor contributing to the sharp decline. MSTR has a total BTC position of over 650000 (approximately 3% of the total Bitcoin), with an average position cost of approximately $74400. However, upon analysis, it is only when the BTC price drops to $50000 that the company will sell a large amount of coins -MNAV significantly drops below 1.0, stock price may fall below $100 -The financing channels are basically closed, and it is impossible to raise funds through the stock or bond markets -The company may be forced to sell 10-20% of Bitcoin to repay upcoming debts -Nevertheless, the company's asset liability ratio will remain above 2.0 times and will not be insolvent So it doesn't seem like you need to worry too much, but you can see that the buying power is still good. In the past week, a total of ten newly created wallets received 2612 BTC from BitGo, which is about 231 million US dollars at the current price. 1011 Insider Whale also transferred a large amount of funds to Binance. On chain data shows that the proportion of giant whales has increased. So our current assessment is: Approaching the bottom in stages, but to prevent a pullback of $80000, but $80000 should be a temporary bottom and will definitely hit a new low next year. BTC needs to break through $110000 and stand firm for 2 days before there will be a real reversal, otherwise it will be fake, which is obviously difficult, so the next step is still to focus on rebound. Pay attention to these major events of the week and their impact on the rebound Today at 23:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bauman gave a speech; Tomorrow at 21:15, the ADP employment figures for November in the United States; Number of initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29th in the United States at 21:30 on Thursday (in 10000 people); Friday 23:00 Annual PCE Price Index in the United States; Friday 23:00 US December 1-Year Inflation Expectation Initial Value; Friday 23:00 Initial Consumer Confidence Index for December at the University of Michigan in the United States. Analysis is only a friendly reference. Adults should take responsibility for their own decisions. Investment carries risks, so please invest with spare money and think and judge independently!