大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only
大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only|Dec 01, 2025 19:52
We have also had some discussions about whether micro strategies will explode I personally think that the possibility of a mine explosion is unlikely. The significance of the cryptocurrency market to the world lies in its being a highly liquid area that needs to be regulated. So it will inevitably attract politically disadvantaged people to invest in cryptocurrency, especially in the context where UBS is no longer a hotbed. If you don't understand, let me give an example in plain language. Currently, the opposition to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, will allocate a considerable amount of cryptocurrency assets (mainly stablecoins and BTC) because cryptocurrency assets have extremely high property transferability and tax exemption, and are not affected by regulatory agencies. And they will never easily cooperate with law enforcement agencies. When the Republican Party steps down and the Democratic Party takes office, funds in the cryptocurrency market can quickly comply, and vice versa. The cryptocurrency market is no longer just a small game, but a necessity in the game between major powers. The above content only points to one conclusion, that the world needs a cryptocurrency market. ———————— Why does the micro strategy's claim that it may sell coins this time cause significant market volatility? I would like to use another example to illustrate. In July 2024, the market was plunged into panic over Japan's interest rate hike, and BTC fell by over 30% in a few days. Currently, BTC has also fallen by 30%. ———————— Why? Before Japan raised interest rates, the market had no risk expectations for CarryTrade, and naturally, institutions would not have corresponding tail hedging for CarryTrade, as it is a near risk-free arbitrage transaction. When the interest rate hike had an impact on CarryTrade, a large number of institutional positions were exposed to a single exposure, resulting in a surge in VIX on the same day, second only to 312. This means that institutions engage in tail end hedging of their positions in the market at any cost. Retail investors can take on orders, but institutions cannot allow their exposure to be single without protection. More similarly, there have been changes in the rating of risk-free collateral for US Treasury bonds by regional banks in the past. The seemingly small gap of only a few million dollars is actually a fundamental challenge to US Treasury bonds. ———————— What is the relationship between this and MSTR's steering this time? Since its establishment, MSTR has always claimed that it is impossible to sell BTC, but recently, with the decline of mNAV, this statement has shifted. That is to say, there is a certain probability that MSTR will never sell coins in the market. As the largest holder of BTC currently and a believer in many institutions, MSTR selling coins will cause a chain reaction @ Strategy, and the market will have a large amount of tail hedging, resulting in the recent upward trend of IV, and a large number of BTC holders should hedge tail risks in response to changes in MSTR. In other words, the behavior of MSTR selling coins may be similar to a change in the Satoshi Nakamoto block, and the market will be engulfed by panic. And currently, we are in this stage.
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