qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Dec 01, 2025 13:57
Let's talk about the concern that MSTR may be excluded from the MSCI index. Recently, due to reports from JPMorgan Chase, the market began to worry about whether MSTR would be excluded from the MSCI index, which led to passive selling and pressure on its stock price. If its convertible bonds cannot be converted, will it have to sell Bitcoin to repay the debt? Regarding the question, my personal opinion is as follows: 1) International index compilation giant MSCI has released a consultation document proposing to remove "digital asset treasury companies" from its global indices. Of course, it is still in the public consultation stage, and I personally think there is still room for improvement. Firstly, MSTR is still a constituent stock of the Nasdaq 100 index. Currently, the Nasdaq 100 has not yet announced its intention to exclude MSTR, and the value of Nasdaq 100 support during regular meetings is much higher than MSCI. Of course, in the future, if the stock price is under pressure and the market value declines, it may also be excluded from the Nasdaq 100 index. 2) The biggest impact of being excluded from the index is that passive investment tools tracking the index will be forced to sell and prices will further decline. Will it trigger MSTR to sell Bitcoin to repay debts? It depends on the maturity date of his debt. I checked the latest maturity date of the debt held by MSTR, which is 28 years and September, and 32 years at the latest. This means that MSTR did not have any debt due before 28 years and only needs to pay interest annually, with a time window of nearly 3 years. 3) In fact, the official statement from MSTR was made a long time ago: in the future, issuing bonds to hoard coins and selling stocks to pay interest "was discussed in a tweet in early September. Tonight, MSTR announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve fund, which will be used specifically to pay preferred stock dividends and existing debt interest. The funds will come from the proceeds of the company's ATM sale of Class A common stock according to the market issuance plan. It is the execution and implementation of the previous strategy of "issuing bonds and hoarding coins, selling stocks to repay interest". There is a saying that says' Mstr won't buy coins for now and will pay off the interest ', but it's hard to understand that Mstr's funds for buying Bitcoin two years ago were not from selling stocks, but from various types of bond financing. The money from issuing bonds for financing and the money from selling stocks have been officially defined for different purposes for a long time. Once again, Mstr has long been clear about the strategy of "issuing bonds, hoarding coins, and selling stocks to repay debts". 4) Tonight's $1.44 billion reserve, ATM market price issuance of stocks, is actually an attempt by MSTR to dispel market concerns that the company may not be able to pay interest. This time, raising all the funds needed to pay interest for the next two years is considered a one-time solution. Of course, the stock price still needs further pressure, but there will be no convertible bond maturity issue in the next three years, and the risk of stock price decline during this period is also acceptable. As long as the stock price can be pulled up again before September 28, the convertible bond can be completed. 5) In fact, we also need to consider the possibility of the official actively selling Bitcoin. The CEO of Mstr mentioned in the first two points that it is not completely unsold. When nav is less than 1, selling Bitcoin to repurchase stocks is also not a problem. It just breaks his promise of only hoarding and not selling, and it doesn't seem like Michael Saylor will easily think about it. This article is sponsored by the meme trading tool http://(xxyy. io) | Fast trading, versatile features, and can be used to monitor on chain wallets @useXXYYio
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