Orange Evening Interpretation 12.1 There were too many negative factors this weekend. Firstly, a meeting was held among 13 domestic ministries to jointly crack down on virtual currency speculation. This wave has expanded the specifications compared to the 7 ministries in 2017 (94) and the 10 ministries in 2021 (924). Three more departments have been added compared to 924, namely the Ministry of Justice, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Central Financial Office. These three departments are responsible for legislation, resource control, and strategic coordination respectively This marks the upgrade of regulation towards the entire chain of finance and law enforcement, emphasizing that the virtual currency proposed by 924 does not have legal tender status, and related business activities (such as trading, exchange, mining, and stablecoin issuance) are illegal financial activities and are strictly prohibited. In a word, it must be a bad and panic policy for domestic currency market practitioners and traders. I remember that when Trump fully supported the currency market, many foreign media had once passed China and would reopen it. Now it seems that they really want more. The currency market is an easy way to escape funds and bypass foreign exchange control, and there is only a dead end in China. There are also news that now the foreign exchange review has been upgraded. Previously, it was the automatic review of the system for personal overseas remittance of US $1w, but now it is US $1000 to be reviewed. Yiwu's stable currency trading volume has reached US $10 billion. So if you wholeheartedly take encryption as a career, It's better to go out. There is no accident in China now, and there is also the risk of settling accounts later. However, the convening of this meeting did not have an immediate impact on the market, as there were too many previous setbacks. It is time for everyone to go global and withdraw from the market; In addition, this wave is only a meeting for discussion, not a notification like 924, which means that the results have already been announced, so the power is greater. However, this meeting format is also uncertain that there will be a summary notice later, and the market may panic again. Today's market correction wave may also have this impact. We will start hedging operations on Monday when we return to work. Another more important news that affects coin prices is Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if the forecasts for economic activity and prices are realized as scheduled, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise policy interest rates based on the improvement in the economy and prices. The negative impact of Japan's interest rate hike has been mentioned countless times before, and last year there was a jump, so ETH was cleared The direct collapse of the market was caused by the central bank governor's eagle strike, but the market still experienced panic. Many people do not know what the relationship between Japan's interest rate hike and the currency market is. This is actually easy to explain. Japan has always had zero or negative interest rates, and it is long-term. This has led many smart institutions to borrow yen from Japanese banks to buy products with higher interest rates, such as the US dollar, US bonds, US stocks, gold, encryption, etc., and allocate different ratios of positions according to the degree of risk. In other words, Japan's low interest rates actually provide liquidity to the risk market. Now, raising interest rates will inevitably lead to a decrease in the interest rate spread of these institutions, so there will be incidents of selling risky assets to repay yen loans, which is equivalent to pumping water from the market. So this downside is not small, Cryptocurrency, an asset that is highly affected by liquidity, is inevitably the first choice for selling, so it is a big bearish trend. Even Arthur Komei posted that the main reason for this decline is the news of Japan's interest rate hike. Then there was a rumor that Trump had decided that Hassett was the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and then Powell would announce his resignation at the emergency meeting held on Monday night. Although Hassett himself also refuted the rumor that early election was a rumor, if Trump was willing to nominate himself, the probability of Hassett's election on the polymarket has reached 72%, which is really a hot spot. In theory, Hassett's rise to power is definitely positive for the market, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in the short-term market if it is confirmed in advance and Powell steps down early. After all, Powell's resignation will be linked to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is also one of the reasons for the decline in currency prices today. In addition, the December interest rate cut is basically stable. The probability of a 25% interest rate cut on the polymarket has reached 89%, and the probability on the CME has reached 87.6%. This market has basically been priced in, but there are too many other negative factors. And another negative event is micro strategy The CEO of Strategy has a bit of a timid tone. He has always claimed that he will never sell big cakes, but over the weekend, he said Only when the company's stock price falls below its net asset value and new funds cannot be obtained, will it consider selling Bitcoin. Currently, the mnav of Micro Strategy is 1.13, which means that as long as the stock price continues to decline, Micro Strategy may have to sell Bitcoin. The market has predicted that this will happen, just like how ETH would be liquidated on the chain every time it falls. Now it is DAT's turn to liquidate. Coin holding institutions with good financial conditions may use their financial advantages to target DAT companies with high debt ratios and financing costs, and then buy at low prices. Similarly, BMNR is even more dangerous. How can MSTR still make billions now? BMNR is actually losing more than 4 billion yuan. If the market continues to liquidate these two big brothers, then the coin price will be affected. It will continue to fall for another wave. In terms of shanzhai, the entire market has now stalled, and the recently counter trend ZEC has also halved. The entire privacy sector saw the most correction over the weekend, with ZEC falling by 60%, DCR and Dash also falling by more than 20%. In addition, several projects affected by investigations into market makers' misconduct, such as $m sahara, have been directly halved, and newly listed shanzhai have also been halved one after another, As the first ICO of CB, mon did not withstand it. After Little Black Arthur sold it, he directly predicted that the project would drop by 99%. The founder responded with various technical skills, but the market would not deceive people. The high point was cut off directly. Another king level new coin, irys, has also been declining all the way and is currently close to the breakthrough price. It seems that the recently listed new coin, no matter how strong its background, how low its valuation, or which major exchange it is listed on, is likely to be invested for a week. This is a microcosm of the current market. Regardless of the coin, you need to pay attention to selling it at its peak, otherwise you will face the result of being trapped. The next new coin is the same, whether it is megath or stable, or base, arc, sea, polymarket. As long as you dare to issue coins today, you must leave within 3 days of receiving them. The only markets worth holding in this market are BTC, ETH, and SOL Wait for a few, others don't have moats.