Next week, there is another geopolitical hotspot that needs attention: the main expeditionary forces of the US military around Venezuela have basically arrived, and the moment that will determine Venezuela's fate seems to be coming. In response to the situation in Venezuela, the United States has launched the largest naval military deployment in recent years. According to US media estimates, about a quarter of the mobile forces of the surface fleet currently deployed to the outside world have been drawn in this direction, and war seems to be imminent. So, will Venezuela really become the next battlefield for the United States? On the contrary, the larger the formation, the more it seems to be exerting maximum pressure rather than genuinely wanting to fight an Iraq style ground war. If we really want to strike Venezuela, it is more likely to be a two-step surgical precision strike route: The first step is air strikes, plus long-range strikes. Focus on destroying Venezuela's key air defense systems, radar stations, fighter bases, and command and communication nodes. Mastering air superiority. The second step is small-scale special operations: sending a small number of special forces to infiltrate secretly and carry out "beheading" or arrests of Maduro's official residence and key figures, just like the way the United States did in Manoleja, Panama back then. Trump is using military strength as a bargaining chip to launch a magnified version of "extreme pressure+military blackmail". He may be betting that under this ubiquitous pressure, Maduro will remain in a state of tension for a long time, eventually having to resign or voluntarily compromise with the United States - including resource development rights, oil and gas project allocation, financial concessions, and even promises of certain diplomatic positions. As long as these transactions can be forced, the United States may be able to extract a large piece of wool from Venezuela under the premise of "not fighting or fighting less". This business like calculation is very consistent with Trump's usual business logic. In the international community, Venezuela has indeed received verbal support and moral backing from some countries, but the United States has never cared much about condemnation and isolation. The real key is that no major power has openly and explicitly provided security protection or military alliances for Venezuela - which determines that this country is considered by the United States to be the kind of object that can be used to strike, but not worth flipping the table for. In terms of Venezuela's military strength, only when the situation is dragged into long-term ground and urban warfare can the United States suffer truly unbearable political casualties. If the United States chooses to stay at the level of "continuous airstrikes+special operations", it is undoubtedly extremely unfavorable for Maduro: it cannot fight hard, and the United States will not be foolish enough to really become Iraq's second. If war breaks out, it could be a double-edged sword for Bitcoin: 1. Negative: The panic selling in the early stages of the war, as well as Venezuela's long-term use of stablecoins for oil trading, may provide an opportunity for the United States to combat the systemic financial risks brought by stablecoins. 2. Lido: Once again proves that decentralized assets are the only "escape route" when the fiat system collapses and the banking system collapses. There may be a need for capital outflow within Venezuela.