On the weekend, the mood was relatively stable. Let's talk about the possibility of the "last drop" based on the consumption data of "Black Friday" The last drop is actually an economic recession, and only with an economic recession can there be a "last drop", such as the 312 in 2020 In this tweet: https://(x.com)/DL-W59/status/1991854807322112110? As I have explained before, in the macro cycle, it is still like the end of 2019 or the beginning of 2020, and what awaits us is the arrival of a loose trend. We can't have the idea of a four-year halving cycle anymore At the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, with the outbreak of the pandemic, the unemployment rate rose sharply to double digits and reached 312. Then the Federal Reserve cut interest rates significantly, reaching 0-0.25%, and began QE. Later, it became the big bull of loose monetary policy At present, we are waiting for whether it is a recession or a soft landing. We hyped it once in the first half of this year, a recession. Isn't the economy doing well in the future. Before the "Black Friday" shopping festival, there were concerns that if the consumption data did not meet expectations, it could trigger market worries. Finally, the online sales of Black Friday in the United States reached a record high of $11.8 billion. Black Friday is similar to our Double 11, which can reflect the consumption of ordinary people. At present, the data shows that the economy is still stable and there are no signs of recession. So the market won't worry too much temporarily. But in the future, everyone knows that the unemployment rate data for September is 4.4. Once it reaches around 4.55%, it will trigger the Federal Reserve's most sensitive Sahm Rule, which means that the economy has entered or is about to enter a recession. At that time, even if the Federal Reserve is unwilling to cut interest rates, it will still face this pressure. Actually, this is also my concern. If we cut interest rates due to the arrival of a recession, the risk market will not look good, just like in 2007-08. So that's also why Williams supports a rate cut in December, because he doesn't want an economic recession. So the labor force data and inflation for November released in December are worth paying attention to. But according to the current data, there is no need to be very afraid. Even if it is caused by the previous US government shutdown, the feedback on labor data will not be available until the first half of next year. Now Trump is calling for interest rate reduction, and he is also afraid of recession. At the political level, Trump should not dare to let the economy decline in 2026. Even if there is any sign, it will at least delay until after the mid-term elections. The current interest rate is 4, and it will decrease by 25 points in December, reaching 3.75. Next year, it will be at least twice or even more, in preparation for the midterm elections. So by the end of 26 years, the interest rate may be around 3 or 2.75 Then it depends on whether the unemployment rate will rise and whether it will decline. At that time, the recession will be the real 'last drop', and then we will be greeted by a major expansion of the balance sheet or even QE. Of course, there are also some friends who say they will have a soft landing, that's also possible. At this point, there is limited easing, without QE, there may be expansion of the balance sheet. At that time, it will be considered the truly loose liquidity market brought about by good liquidity, and it will also be the true reversal. The above is my personal deduction. Actually, it still depends on the specific situation. Of course, the trend towards easing is becoming increasingly evident.