wu fan|11月 28, 2025 02:10
Many people think the turning point between a bull and bear market
is the highest and lowest point.
But that's just the hindsight perspective when you're reviewing the K-line after it's already formed.
If you're trying to predict the market,
then the rate cut in August was a classic bull-to-bear turning point.
At that time, they used the good news to sell off,
and instead of going up, the market dropped—
the first time this happened after multiple rate cuts.
The subsequent rate cuts were the same.
Even though it went up 1000u after 12.45 to 12.6,
it was almost impossible for bulls to make money after 12.45.
Even if you held until 12.6, you'd lose it all quickly.
So, the August rate cut was the true start of the bear market.
That was the moment we could feel the bull-bear switch in the market,
not just the turning points you analyze on the K-line after the fact.
If you only review K-line turning points, you'll never improve.
You only understand what I'm saying when you're actually in the market.
In August, I predicted a bear market ahead.
By the end of November, I saw a bull market coming in the next few months.
Time will give us the answer.
Just be patient and wait.
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