律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|11月 26, 2025 10:00
[Analysis: Bitcoin's support at the cost basis of 65% of address holders is crucial, indicating possible ongoing redistribution of holdings] BlockBeats News, November 26: On-chain data analyst Murphy released an analysis stating that Bitcoin's CBD Quantiles curve shows that the market's holdings are undergoing significant redistribution. CBD Quantiles: A dynamic curve that divides BTC purchase costs into 1%-100% based on the number of addresses, used to observe the daily distribution and migration direction of holdings costs. Purple line: The 65th percentile cost, meaning 65% of addresses hold BTC at a cost lower than this value. The chart reveals that when BTC fell below $100,000, high-level holdings (red line, 75th percentile) quickly moved downward, while low-level holdings (purple line) simultaneously moved upward, indicating that high-level holdings were absorbed by lower-level funds—signifying a "shakeout" in the market. Currently, it is crucial for BTC's price to find support at the purple line, as this means 65% of addresses on-chain remain in a profitable state, leaving a glimmer of hope for the market. However, it is important to note that this also includes some long-term inactive or "frozen" addresses, such as Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. Looking back at the previous cycle, when the purple line support was breached, Bitcoin entered a prolonged downtrend. New funds were forced to change hands at lower percentiles as prices fell, pushing the market into a deep bear phase. Short-term observation: If the purple line continues to hold as support, the redistribution of holdings may still be ongoing, giving the market a chance to catch its breath. However, if this support is lost, it could trigger a new wave of downward pressure.
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