qinbafrank|Nov 22, 2025 02:07
The previous night, the US stock market experienced a reversal, with the Big Dipper falling 12 points in the 24 hours leading up to the opening of the US stock market last night. The core of the decline was the expectation of not cutting interest rates in December, which was then shattered by the New York Fed's Williams before the market opened last night (with the currency market ultimately bearing the most impact). Although several members of the Federal Reserve Board spoke last night, New York Fed President Williams, as the third in command of the Fed and responsible for implementing various monetary policies, is undoubtedly the one with the strongest say.
Following that, the release of inflation expectations data for both the one-year and five-year to ten-year periods decreased compared to previous values, especially with the five-year to ten-year inflation expectations turning downwards for the first time since July. Inflation expectations are also a very important value in the inflation trend, as they often have a self reinforcing trend. The decline in inflation expectations is a good signal, and as mentioned earlier, the further the inflation trend, the more important the basis for determining the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rates.
Williams' speech and the decrease in inflation expectations have greatly boosted market confidence, and even though the Labor Department pushed the November CPI data to after the December interest rate meeting, the market did not pay much attention. This is interesting: previously, the probability of not cutting interest rates in December increased significantly due to the postponement of non farm payroll data in November, but last night's postponement of CPI data in November did not affect the probability of interest rate cuts. Does this mean that Williams has come out to make a final decision and there is no data before the interest rate meeting, which means there will not be any obstacles to the Federal Reserve? In essence, it is a confirmation of interest rate cuts?
More importantly, Trump started to work on the market performance that has been silent for several days. In the early morning, it was reported that Trump was considering selling the H200 chip of British NVDA to China. You should know that Nvidia's strong guidance in the fourth quarter of its financial report does not include any sales data in China. If Trump really released the H200, Nvidia's performance in the fourth quarter or even next year will be even better. It is also a great boost for the US stocks that opened high and fell low the night before
In the short term, last night may have been a small turning point for the market, with real power figures from the Federal Reserve speaking out to guide expectations, inflation expectations falling, and the market ignoring the negative news of the delayed release of CPI data in November (with signs of desensitization to negative news). The more important Trump has started to work. Of course, H200 chip is more relevant to the US stock market and boosts it even more.
The most critical data for next week is the October PCE data released by the US on the 27th, and there is no intention of delaying it based on information from the Ministry of Commerce.
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