TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Nov 21, 2025 13:13
I was just taking a walk outside when I saw this message and quickly went home to search on my computer. It was said by New York Fed President Williams at a meeting of the Chilean central bank. The Bloomberg news was released at 9:30am Chilean time, so I did wake up. The source link is here: https://www. (bloomberg.com)/news/articles/2025-11-21/fed-s-williams-sees-room-for-an-interest-rate-cut-in-near-term? Utm_source=(chatgpt. com)&embedded checkout=true He mainly expressed three viewpoints: The essence of Williams' speech is to give Powell a platform: the employment risk has exceeded the inflation risk, and the Federal Reserve can not only cut interest rates, but preferably in the near future. When the New York Fed believes that interest rates are "too restrictive," it means that the financial system is really tight, and if the Fed doesn't take action, there will be bigger problems. This speech not only increases the probability of a December interest rate cut, but also conveys a hidden message: the 2% target is not to be immediately recovered, but to be gradually recovered, which is beneficial for all risk assets. Affected by the speech, the probability of CME cutting interest rates in December has skyrocketed to 70%. I can only say, Federal Reserve, you are a ruthless person. At the beginning, I guessed the script of playing with the expectation of interest rate cuts, but I didn't expect it to be so extreme as 80000 yuan. Now the market is filled with blood chips. The EMA120 weekly chart seems to have been successful, but even if we look back and see that today is indeed the bottom, we cannot rashly enter now. Let's wait for a retracement confirmation before making a decision
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