律动BlockBeats|11月 20, 2025 09:32
[Analysis: Bitcoin's $60,000 to $70,000 Range Represents Deep Bear Market Zone, 50% of Tokens Will Be at a Loss]
BlockBeats News, November 20: On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin's PSIP (Percentage of Supply in Profit) is used to observe the market's optimism and panic levels, with the 7-day moving average now below 70%. Historical data shows that the first drop during the transition from bull to bear markets in past cycles typically reaches this level, followed by a rebound after extreme emotional pressure. Whenever PSIP falls below 50%, it signals the deep bear phase of a major cycle, which is also the most cost-effective and worthwhile price range to buy.
Currently, BTC is priced at $92,000, and UPPD data shows that 6.7 million BTC are at a loss, accounting for 33% of the total circulating supply. Assuming low-price tokens are no longer sold, when the price drops to $59,000, 9.744 million BTC will become trapped tokens, at which point PSIP will be approximately 50%. Since PSIP is dynamic, using it as a static value for evaluation only represents an approximate range. Based on experience, if BTC enters the $60,000 to $70,000 range, PSIP is highly likely to drop below 50%, signaling the deep bear phase.
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