星球日报
星球日报|11月 18, 2025 02:20
[Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin's Decline Stems from USD Liquidity Contraction, Short-Term May Retrace to $80K–$85K] Odaily Planet Daily News: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article that the recent decline in Bitcoin is not due to a deterioration in fundamentals but rather a significant contraction in USD liquidity. He pointed out that weakened capital flows related to ETFs and DAT have re-exposed the market to a negative liquidity environment, with the USD liquidity index decreasing by approximately $1 trillion since July. The exit of ETF arbitrage trades and the disappearance of DAT premiums have caused Bitcoin's 'pseudo-buying pressure' to fade, necessitating a downward price adjustment to realign with actual liquidity. Hayes believes that BTC may further retrace in the short term to the $80K–$85K range, potentially accompanied by credit events and rising U.S. Treasury yields. He predicts that if U.S. equities experience a 10%–20% correction, driving Treasury yields higher, the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury will be forced to release liquidity again. Should there be a policy shift, Bitcoin could rapidly rebound to the $200K–$250K range by the end of the year.
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