Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson did little to build the case for either a December rate cut or an extended pause: “The evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.” Recent cuts were appropriate because the balance of risks shifted in recent months “as downside risks to employment have increased.” His outlook: “A reasonable base case is that tariffs result in a one-time shift in the price level, not an ongoing inflation problem.” “I expect that the unemployment rate is likely to inch up slightly by the end of the year from the relatively low 4.3% rate recorded in August.” “The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have moved it closer to its neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy.”(Nick Timiraos)