Last night's performance of the US stock market actually sent a very clear signal: market sentiment is gradually recovering from panic. After all, from a fundamental perspective, not only have there been no new deteriorating factors, but the government has also been improving after restarting - in this situation, the occurrence of a "nonsensical comprehensive decline" itself is difficult to believe that it is truly driven by fundamentals. Even if we include the "pigeon to eagle" within the Federal Reserve, this sharp decline is still strangely excessive. Moreover, Williams and Bostic, who were originally regarded as "hawkish head coaches", are about to retire; And the truly crucial voting structure of the FOMC will be reshuffled next year. There is actually a lot of room for discussion on whether some of the current committee members who have switched to hawks are "real hawks" or "fake hawks". The most interesting thing is that Trump's team was unusually quiet. It is reasonable to say that the more hawkish the Federal Reserve is, the more the market shakes, and the more the White House should come forward to say to stabilize expectations, but this round of Trump team is unusually low-key. This low-key approach seems to be playing a tacit card with the Federal Reserve: the Fed creates volatility to free up more space for subsequent fiscal policies. And a more intuitive point is that almost all of the targets that were hit hard this time were the ones that have risen the most fiercely, sexily, and with the highest premiums in the past year - AI, semiconductors, super growth stocks, encrypted assets... Anyone with high trading congestion has been hit by a common "heavy hand". But the more this is done, the more it indicates that it is more like "pruning saplings" rather than "cutting down trees". Because only by stripping away the overvalued, leveraged, and heavily crowded parts can the next stage of the market be more stable and longer. The unemployment rate that the Federal Reserve values the most is only a moderate increase, far from reaching the level of "triggering a recession"; Inflation indicators are also steadily declining. The macro fundamentals have stabilized, and the fiscal sector is about to see the release of liquidity after the government restarts. The market suddenly undergoes a round of "decapitation" here, which naturally appears unnatural everywhere. Because of this, I am more inclined to think that what we are seeing is not a systematic collapse, not the bursting of the foam, but a change of track and position of large funds. This wave is more like: 1. The "fundraising action" before the true release of liquidity 2. The artificially created 'last drop' 3. Mandatory stock swap to lay the groundwork for the next round of upward movement If we look back, the structure from October to now is more like "deep liquidity tightening → government shutdown → data loss → market panic → expectation repair → strong product backlash → track change". This is often the most typical form of a stage bottom. The true forces that will reverse the market - the recovery of fiscal spending after the government opens its doors, the upcoming technical QE by the Federal Reserve, and oversold risk assets - are just beginning to emerge. In other words, this is not the end, this is the eve of the starting point of a new round of market trends.