The trend of the US stock market after the opening tonight is very important. If tonight is a 'Black Friday', then the liquidity crisis of the US dollar will really come. The current market has entered the most terrifying trend, which is the "triple kill" of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. Even gold has begun to decline after yesterday's rebound. If it's just a common safe haven logic, gold will rise when the US stock market falls. When the US dollar index falls, the US stock market will rise. But the current state of all assets falling is not a rotation between assets, but a competition for cash among all assets, caused by the shortage of US dollars in the market. If the US stock market stops falling, oscillates or slightly rises tonight, it means that the liquidity crisis is still within a controllable range, the three kills are beginning to ease, and the real rebound window has opened. If it continues to deteriorate, let's all go down together To summarize the historical pattern, the three kills usually last for about 5-15 days, because the three kills themselves are a manifestation of liquidity being "pushed to the limit", and the system itself cannot withstand three kills lasting more than a few weeks. So every time a triple kill occurs, the Federal Reserve/Treasury Department will quickly take action, and any of the following is enough to terminate the triple kill: The Federal Reserve launches' technical bond purchase ' The Ministry of Finance reduces the pace of bond issuance TGA starts investing money Banking system reserves reach the limit of "no more treasury bond" A certain link in the financial system is about to break down → forced to rescue the market Triple kill is never a state that can last for a long time, it is a critical point signal. So I still stick to my previous judgment and don't easily call it a bear market. When liquidity recovers in December, those who are pessimistic now will be more optimistic, and those who call 70000 now will call 200000. Reject emotional manipulation and use rational judgment to assess the market.