Overall, the sentiment remains optimistic for now. On one hand, the U.S. government shutdown is highly likely to end by Wednesday (U.S. time), which will restore liquidity. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court may not support Trump’s tariff policies. If Trump is forced to abandon or reduce some tariffs, it could lower risks related to consumption and inflation for the market, allowing the Federal Reserve to focus more on rate cuts. However, according to CME data, the expectation for a Fed rate cut in December has dropped from 74% last week to 68% this week. But based on Kalshi data, predictions for a December rate cut have not only remained steady but have actually increased over the past week. This could be due to the recent wave of layoffs and labor market decline, leading some investors to believe that employment data might hit the Fed’s threshold, thereby pushing the Fed toward a rate cut. Some friends also asked me today whether the end of the U.S. shutdown and the gradual release of more data will be good or bad for the market. Personally, I think labor market data is likely to worsen, which would help the Fed cut rates—a positive for risk markets. However, the decline in labor data is closely tied to the shutdown and may not be a long-term trend. This data should be seen as favorable for risk markets. During the shutdown, while comprehensive inflation data wasn’t available, I still believe inflation is likely trending slightly downward. With the Supreme Court’s verbal remarks on Trump’s tariffs, it’s highly likely that investors think these tariffs cannot be implemented directly as proposed, which might delay purchases of imported goods. Sponsored by @Bitget ｜ Save the most on fees, grab the best rewards, and become a VIP at Bitget!