US unemployment likely rose again last month: The Chicago Fed estimates the unemployment rate increased to 4.36% in October, the highest since October 2021. The increase reflects slower hiring as well as a higher rate of layoffs, quits, and retirements. It was also influenced by the government shutdown. As a result, the unemployment rate has now risen by a full percentage point since May 2023. Meanwhile, US-based employers announced 1,099,500 layoffs YTD, nearly matching the pace seen in 2009, according to Challenger Gray. The US labor market needs help.(The Kobeissi Letter)