Researchers at the Minneapolis Fed conclude that tariffs have effects similar to a "negative productivity shock" even though they don't change productivity. The upshot is that they lower the neutral rate of interest sharply in the short-run (but not in the long run): "To the extent that tariffs increase the relative price of investment, tariffs depress demand for capital. Because households are reluctant to lower asset supply commensurately, the decline in the demand for capital causes the natural rate of interest to fall sharply in the short run." Paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34206(Nick Timiraos)