Kay Capital
Kay Capital|Nov 04, 2025 12:53
After listening to the recent Silicon Valley 101 sharing about American electricity, I learned that BE has increased fivefold this year because it is almost the only option: AIDC in the United States is currently developing "park self built power stations": -Nuclear power is stable, but the construction period is over 5 years -Adding new electricity supply and connecting electricity to the grid are two different things, and the optimistic schedule for connecting electricity to the grid is 3-5 years -The AI launch cycle is calculated quarterly So the most realistic and almost only solution is to generate electricity next to AIDC. - - - There are only two paths to support local power generation of this scale now: natural gas turbines and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). The principle of gas turbines is similar to that of aircraft engines, as the demand was not as strong before, and the production capacity that can be delivered domestically in the United States is only in the order of tens of units (each with tens of MW, 100MW). It is said that Musk's xAI has swept almost all of the gas turbine inventory in the United States, accelerating this trend. The representative companies are GE Vernova/Siemens Energy/Mitsubishi Power/Doosan Energity. However, there is a risk of instantaneous interruption when the engine speed drops or is adjusted. SOFC batteries are continuous steady-state electricity, and although the construction cost is higher, the electrical efficiency is also higher. They also support hydrogen blending. Currently, the only players are BE from the United States and Doosan Fuel Cell from South Korea. BE will not accept new orders before 2028. - - - Capacity ramp up: Gas turbine principle=half aircraft engine+half power plant: -Turbine blades are single crystal superalloys, involving aerospace grade precision machining -There are only a few large forging and high-end alloy processing companies in the world, mainly in China, but they are subject to quotas and tariffs set by Section 232 -Talent chain gap (years of low demand) This is not a problem that can be solved by adding production lines. - - - It's too late to figure it out. Whenever you talk to an American AIDC construction practitioner, it's not difficult to grasp the main thread and not be fooled by the false stories of nuclear power.
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