Following Citibank, Goldman Sachs has also made the same judgment in its latest report— The government shutdown will end within two weeks. For the Fed, which relies on data-driven decision-making, this is not only technically good news but also a return to policy transparency. Goldman Sachs pointed out in its report that the shutdown is “closer to the end than the beginning.” Although the Trump administration has been using last year’s unused budget surplus to pay military salaries and administrative expenses, this unconventional maneuvering space is nearing its limit. Several key pressure points are forcing Congress to compromise: 1. About 750,000 federal employees are “furloughed,” with even more working without pay. 2. Air traffic controllers and TSA agents have already missed their first paycheck. 3. Delays in SNAP (food stamp) payments are sparking public dissatisfaction. 4. Congress members’ own salaries are being delayed, and the political window is closing. Goldman Sachs predicts that a funding agreement is most likely to be reached around the second week of November. Citibank is even more optimistic, stating it is “increasingly confident” that the government will reopen within the next two weeks. Morgan Stanley has also outlined scenarios, suggesting the shutdown could end next week: The probability of a rate cut would increase, and the Fed would regain access to complete data. If the shutdown drags on, it will significantly weigh on Q4 GDP growth and could push some economic activities into Q1 next year. From this, we can roughly outline a trading rhythm for the next two weeks and categorize it by information intensity: ① **Rumor Phase (Now–11/7)** Frequent news but no conclusions. Watch if BTC forms a bottom in the 107k–111k range; If a 4-hour bullish divergence appears and it reclaims EMA20/50, small long positions can be tested. Stop loss if it breaks below 106k. ② **Expectation Heating Phase (11/7–11/12)** If news continues to escalate and the Senate schedules a vote, If BTC breaks and holds above 112k, add positions for a rebound. Target 116–120k, reduce positions on a pullback to 112k. ③ **Resolution Phase (Mid-November)** If the government truly reopens: → Market risk appetite may recover, and BTC could test previous highs of 124–126k. If delayed or unsuccessful: → Sentiment will decline, reduce positions, and wait for a new bullish divergence.