Talk about MSTR's financial report - Q3 2025 As stated earlier, MSTR's financial report was released after the US stock market closed on Thursday, with earnings per share of $8.42, market expectation of $7.90, and third quarter revenue of $128.7 million, market expectation of $118.3 million. MSTR's third quarter financial report exceeded market expectations, and the after hours price rose by more than 5%. As of October 26, 2025, MSTR holds a total of 640808 BTC with a total cost of $47.44 billion, equivalent to a cost of $74032 per Bitcoin. The current BTC price is $107300, and the book profit is $21.333 billion. The net profit (on paper) for the third quarter was 2.8 billion US dollars. What concept is this? American Express in the S&P 500, also ranked 67th in global assets, had a profit of $2.9 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Another well-known technology company, Oracle, had a GAAP net profit of $2.9 billion in the third quarter. This is not to say how powerful MSTR is. MSTR received a B - junk stock rating in the latest S&P rating, mainly because the price of Bitcoin fluctuates too much. Therefore, I think S&P's rating of MSTR is basically a rating of BTC, which can be slightly higher by one to two levels because there is no leverage. So MSTR's net profit (book value) has basically met the standards of the top 100 companies in the world, mainly due to the BTC price. Crisis? As of September 30, 2025, MSTR holds cash and cash equivalents of $54.3 million. Can it only buy $54.3 million worth of Bitcoin? No, MSTR does not buy BTC with cash, but with its capital structure. It exchanges fiat currency for BTC by issuing stocks, bonds, and structured credit. In fact, the financial report for the third quarter of 2025 shows that as of October 26, 2025, the remaining issuance amount of MSTR through multiple ATM programs is approximately $42.1 billion, which means that MSTR can buy up to $42.1 billion worth of Bitcoin. So why did MSTR slow down BTC purchases in the third quarter? MSTR divides the Common Stock ATM Program (with a remaining quota of approximately $15.9 billion) into three intervals, and determines the issuance intensity and purpose based on the mNAV level: A. MNAV threshold<2.5x Tactical issuance (1) Pay debt interest (2) Funding preferred stock dividends (3) Other companies have favorable situations (such as small cash supplements). The issuance scale is limited to avoid excessive dilution at low premiums. B. The mNAV threshold ranges from 2.5x to 4.0x for Opportunistic issuance, primarily used for purchasing Bitcoin. Depending on market opportunities, balance financing with BTC yield. C. The mNAV threshold is greater than 4.0x for actively issuing large-scale purchases of Bitcoin. Accelerate at high premiums to maximize leverage effects. The current mNAV is 1.27x (below 2.5x), so MSTR may only be used for debt/dividend payments rather than buying BTC in large quantities. This explains the reason for the slowdown in buying in the third quarter (only $2.2 billion). What is the formula for calculating mNAV? The mNAV of MSTR is the multiple of Enterprise Value (EV) divided by the net asset value of Bitcoin holdings (Bitcoin NAV). Enterprise Value (EV): The total value of the company, including market value+debt+nominal value of preferred stock - cash. Bitcoin NAV: The market value of Bitcoin held by the company (currently approximately 640000 BTC, valued at over $70 billion). Will MSTR cause thunderstorms? Low probability in the short term (2026): Unless BTC drops by more than 50%, the company has $42.1 billion in ATM credit available for quick financing and stable operating cash flow. Medium probability in the long term (2028): If BTC remains sluggish for a long time, there will be significant pressure on debt maturity (the first large amount in 2028). Statistics show that unless BTC falls below $16500, the risk of bankruptcy is the highest. In fact, the price of BTC is not the main reason why MSTR may go bankrupt. If MSTR is really going bankrupt, the core reason should be that MSTR cannot continue to trade stocks for BTC. As long as the market still recognizes MSTR's approach and provides financing channels for MSTR, the probability of MSTR's bankruptcy will be very low. When is MSTR the safest? 1. BTC is in a fluctuating upward cycle 2. Expectations of improved liquidity or interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve 3. Legal capital market willing to purchase BTC exposure 4. Increased recognition of BTC by US regulators 5. mNAV > 2.5， Enterprises can continue to strengthen their balance sheets 6. Non debt repayment period From my personal perspective, first of all, there is no need to consider debt repayment before 2028, which means that before 2028, the price of BTC will hardly cause BTC to explode. And as 2028 marks the beginning of a new major cycle, with both the US presidential election and low interest rates, there is even a possibility of liquidity easing, and the liquidity is highly likely to be better than it is currently. So I don't think the debt in 2028 is a problem, and the price of BTC should not be a problem either. As the only Bitcoin asset currently in the US stock market, MSTR has a relatively low probability of experiencing a sudden explosion in the recent cycle. PS: MSTR utilizes a cycle of market confidence → boosting BTC → increasing mNAV → enhancing financing capability → buying BTC again. This is a Soros style reflexivity model, not an asset-backed model. This article is sponsored by Bitget | @ Bitgetzh