At present, Trump has seized on the dismissal of Powell to make a big fuss. Although it is very clear that he cannot actually achieve his goal through the normal process through conventional means, he has constantly tortured Powell and the confidence of the market with the unconventional means of the Federal Reserve headquarters decoration overspending. For him, whether Powell continues to serve is not important, all he wants is the result of interest rate cuts. But his unconventional measures have put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: let's lower it, lose independence, let's not lower it, endless turmoil. So the best path may be for the data to perform well, and the Federal Reserve to step down. When Trump announced yesterday that he was going to fire Powell, gold and US bond yields rose sharply at the first time. Later, when he saw poor market reaction, he immediately changed his mouth. It is not clear that Trump just used the Fangtang mirror TACO strategy to continuously test the market bottom line or retracted when it saw something wrong. But Wall Street giants such as JPMorgan's Damon, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon, Bank of America's Brian Moynihan, and Citigroup's Jane Fraser are all speaking out and collectively siding with the Federal Reserve, while the market is also gradually desensitizing. After all, everyone knows that a rate cut will inevitably lead to a decline in the US dollar index and an increase in US bond rates, so it is necessary to plan ahead and be prepared. Trump is more likely to ask exorbitant prices to pay back on the spot. From the beginning, he said that he needed to cut interest rates by three percentage points, but the ultimate goal is to cut interest rates by 50BP this year. From a policy perspective, the time window for interest rate cuts is actually very tight. From the rebound in CPI data on Tuesday, it can be seen that after three months, tariffs have finally spread to prices. However, in fact, the tariff war in April only lasted for a week from 4.2-4.9 and was temporarily suspended. If the new round of tariff war starting on August 1st is not TACO and is implemented seriously, inflation may rebound even more in November, and there will be no room for interest rate cuts. Therefore, the conflict between Trump and Powell has tightened the time window of interest rate reduction and tariff reduction. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in September until November, it will be difficult to do so this year. Either Trump will give up the tariff policy or the Federal Reserve will give up its independence, which is too difficult for both. Whether interest rate cuts are good or bad for the virtual currency market is actually very complex and needs to be discussed in stages according to different situations. At the first moment of the interest rate cut, the international arbitrage funds that have accumulated in the US Treasury and US stock market spreads may retreat, but the domestic liquidity brought by the interest rate cut will also enter the market, thus completing a process of asset swap. Due to the fact that the large institutional funds driving the rise of virtual currencies are mainly domestic funds in the United States, there may be a wave of decline during the panic of fund withdrawal, but after stabilizing, the endogenous driving force will still support a long bull trend. Trump's pressure is short-term noise, but the independence of the Federal Reserve and tariff inflation are core variables.