Daan Crypto Trades
Daan Crypto Trades|Jul 16, 2025 10:33
The potential for a solid altcoin run has not looked as good in over 2 years as it does now. Let me explain 👇 (Not calling for a full blown alt season, but there's some potential, please read further). 1. The ETH/BTC ratio is breaking higher and has flipped its market structure around and is breaking above the bull market support band with that. Would want to see weekly closes above 0.026 for the ratio to really confirm this. Historically, ETH has always been the leader for market wide altcoin outperformance. For everyone always correcting me and saying ETH isn't relevant but SOL is what to watch, I keep saying: SOL went on a monster rally this cycle and what did the majority of alts do? I think that shows it's definitely not a market wide altcoin strength indicator. ETH is. 2. BTC.D is breaking down slightly but has a long way to go to confirm a larger turn around is due. It came just short of the 70% big resistance so far. Obviously I'm not ruling out anything but at least the risk reward starts making more sense the higher it goes. 3. Best case scenario for alts would be if BTC chills out around this area during the Summer and investors go further down the risk curve to try and catch some of these runs. BTC around 120K is too high for many people and they think they relative returns will be quite small from here on out. This makes people more likely to start allocating into alts. 4. I do still think we'll see more concentrated runs within specific sectors vs a market wide altcoin run. The latter is just simply very hard with the amount of coins there are. But even if there's 2-3 narratives running at the same time, those can be perfect to rotate between if you can roughly catch a decent chunk of the rotations. 5. My BTC to altcoin ratio has been 80/20 for most of the year. If we continue to see strength, I'll start scaling some of that BTC into high conviction altcoin holds and will start moving closer to 50/50 for the remainder of 2025. This is something I am comfortable with. Depending on your view and risk appetite you might want to do something entirely different. I just made the deal with myself that I'd never go below a 50% BTC allocation ever again. This is already on the low side in my opinion. As always, we'll see how it plays out. Keep monitoring and don't get stuck in bags that lag or underperform for prolonged periods of time. Stick with strength and stick with the winners would be my recommendation.
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