TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Jul 12, 2025 05:15
As the saying goes, be prepared before you worry. Let's make a contingency plan for Powell's resignation. If he suddenly announces his resignation and causes huge market fluctuations, we won't be able to prepare. In the short term, the market's first reaction should be happy, as Powell is considered by the market to be the main obstacle to not cutting interest rates. His resignation will greatly increase the market's confidence in cutting interest rates, so it is highly likely that the market will rise in the first place. But when the market cools down a little, they may feel that Trump's power is too great, even Powell can win, and the authority and independence of the Federal Reserve have been questioned and challenged unprecedentedly. The market will gradually shift from excitement to panic, as the Federal Reserve is not only related to interest rate levels, but also to the operation of all commodities, risk assets, and banking systems worldwide, including Bitcoin. It can be said that one pull can move the whole body. Such a huge systemic risk will inevitably lead to market panic for a period of time. After all, all living beings have an instinct to avoid uncertain harm. So the true safe haven anchor gold may be sought after until everything is calm. Looking at the timeline in the medium to long term, if we win Powell in exchange for a rapid and significant interest rate cut, the market liquidity will be instantly abundant. The world has entered a new round of easing cycle, and Trump's friendly attitude towards virtual currency has laid the foundation for the birth of real Daniel. Assuming that the current position of 118 is due to the rush caused by Powell's resignation news, when the news hits, it may briefly rise by more than 120 and then rebound after the good news is released, waiting for the next wave of narrative. Then the bottom keeps rising until it reaches a large bull weighing 200000 or 100000.
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