Later, we talked about the tariff trade negotiations. The focus of the next week after the Great Beauty customs clearance should be the progress of the tariff trade negotiations: 1. Yesterday Trump announced that it had reached an agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam exported 20% of American goods (including 10% of the benchmark tax rate, which is far lower than the previous 10%+46% tax rate on the liberation day), and the United States exported zero tariff to Vietnam. In my personal opinion, the focus of the US Vietnam agreement is actually on this: the tariff on transit from Vietnam to the United States is 40%, and the intention is very clear. The trade alliance targeting China is gradually emerging, and we look to see if there will be similar terms with other countries in the future. 2. After Vietnam, India and Indonesia are on the verge of reaching an agreement. Canada, which was threatened by Trump to cancel the digital service tax immediately at the beginning of this week, also took the initiative to clear the barriers to negotiations with the United States, and it is estimated that progress will be rapid. The most intense game in the end may be between the United States and Japan, as well as the United States and Europe. The focus of the United States and Japan is on the automotive industry, while the focus of the United States and Europe is on non-tariff trade barriers such as digital service taxes. 3. As Beckett said last night, most countries will receive at least 10% of equivalent tariffs. In early May, my prediction is that additional equivalent tariffs (based on billboard numbers) are likely to be cancelled or significantly reduced, ultimately adding a little industry specific tariff on top of the 10%, for a total of more than ten points. Now that most of them have been verified, the final result will be: 1) Most countries have a 10% equivalent tariff, with a small increase on this basis, such as Vietnam's 20%, which can be understood as a 10% base tariff rate plus an additional 10% surcharge. The transit tariff rates of some countries are much higher than the normal tariff rates, 2) If a small number of countries with intense competition cannot reach a complete agreement before July 9th, there may be a temporary framework agreement first, and negotiations may continue in July or August. It can be considered that the 7.9 deadline has been bypassed, but the Sichuan Provincial People's Congress said that the temporary agreement is also an agreement. 4. Tariffs are approaching finality. Looking back now, what have tariffs brought? 1) Of course, it is the market volatility from February to early April that everyone still remembers vividly; 2) The profound changes in the global geopolitical landscape have completely shifted from ideological dominance to interest driven. Everyone really understood Trump's intention of "giving priority to the United States", which drove the awakening of European independence; 3) The game between China and the United States has entered a deep-water zone and is now in a state where both can be discussed (depending on the strength of the chip exchange) 4) For Americans, tariffs have increased revenue. Did we talk about https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/19170733513671353556 before? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A A tariff of more than ten points brings over 300 billion US dollars in tariff revenue to the United States annually. At that time, many people believed that tariffs would lead to a significant reduction in import volume, and now their concerns in this regard should be much less.