The core driving factor behind today's market's double explosion of long and short positions may be the rapid change in oil price expectations, especially the market's reassessment of the possibility of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Polymarket data, the probability has now dropped to about 30%, reflecting the market's belief that Iran lacks actual blockade capabilities, thereby weakening concerns about rising oil prices and causing them to drop to around $68. In the short term, the war is still difficult to cease, but as long as there are no signs of actual blockade, the space for a significant increase in oil prices is limited. In terms of the cryptocurrency market, although Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations, on chain data has not shown obvious panic. The turnover is mainly concentrated among short-term bottom traders, while long-term investors still maintain a wait-and-see attitude. In terms of support, the range of $93000-98000 remains stable, while the area above $105000 is at risk of a pullback due to short-term buying activity. Overall, oil prices and war expectations remain key variables determining the volatility of risk assets. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex