
Jim Bianco|Jun 23, 2025 15:02
Are we witnessing the BEGINNING of a Fed mutiny, led by two Trump appointees, Bowman and Waller, and driven by Trump's persistent demands for rate cuts?
The chart below shows the probabilities of a July cut. It was just 8% right after Powell's presser last week.
Then Waller spoke on Friday:
*FED'S WALLER: COULD CUT RATES AS EARLY AS JULY MEETING
Bowman early this morning
*FED'S BOWMAN: OPEN TO CUTTING RATES AS SOON AS JULY FOMC MEETING IF INFLATION PRESSURES STAY CONTAINED
Now it is 25% for a July cut, implying this meeting MIGHT BE in play.
Is everyone at the FOMC on the same page? Will Powell squash dissenters? If not, will the July meeting have several dissents?
Does this type of mutiny (Fed style) give Trump an opening to fire Powell?
Are Waller and Bowman just angling to be Trump's pick for the next Fed Chairman?
Powell testifies before the House tomorrow (Wednesday in the Senate), and unity on monetary policy, and allowing diverse opinions (and votes) has risen to the top of the issues he needs to address.
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Postscript: Another person angling to be the next Fed Chairman also weighed in today.
*HASSETT: WALLER, TRUMP ARE RIGHT ABOUT INTEREST RATES
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