
Phyrex|Jun 20, 2025 18:06
Today's homework is a bit difficult to write. The amplitude in the past 24 hours has been quite large, from a high of $106500 to almost falling below $102000. Although I am not good at geopolitical conflicts, the recent fluctuations are likely due to conflicts in the Middle East. From the trend of oil prices, the price of WTI oil has risen by more than $74 today, while Brent oil has slightly fallen.
This situation is relatively rare, mainly due to regional differences where WTI is closer to domestic consumption and reserve demand in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts have sparked market concerns about US energy security, coupled with the possibility of a decrease in US crude oil inventories, triggering speculative capital inflows and thus pushing up WTI prices.
In contrast, Brent oil mainly targets the global market and has recently been suppressed by factors such as weak demand in Europe and lowered global economic growth expectations. In addition, the Middle East shipping industry has not been substantially interrupted, resulting in relative pressure on Brent. Some institutions may also go long on WTI and short on Brent through arbitrage operations, further amplifying the divergence between the two trends.
Overall, the current war has led American investors to believe that its impact on the US mainland will be greater, possibly due to concerns about the US being involved in the conflict or concerns about the war pushing up energy prices, exacerbating inflation, and resulting in long-term high interest rates.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, although the price of BTC fluctuates greatly, the turnover rate is actually decreasing, and the main investors who leave are those who are losing money. This also indicates that although the war has caused some panic, the panic has not been amplified, and more investors are not very concerned about geopolitical conflicts.
From the supporting data, although $93000 to $98000 is still the most stable support level, the BTC accumulation in this range is already less than the stock between $100500 and $105000, which has exceeded 2 million coins.
At present, although the impact is not significant, if it continues to pile up, it is likely to force the market to choose a direction, especially when the stock of $1000 between $104000 and $105000 exceeds 1.2 million coins. Although the choice of direction may not necessarily mean a decline, if the market continues to release panic, the amplitude of BTC may continue to increase.
This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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