Financial market traders hope to accurately predict future trends. So if you cross back to 312 and know that BTC will rise to 110000 U after 312, you will make a huge profit, right? The answer is no. Even if you travel back to 312, your earnings will be the same as today, or even worse than today's earnings; This involves two important theories: the "butterfly effect" and Soros' "reflexivity"; 1. The butterfly effect is a sensitive dependence on initial conditions. In this case, a small change in the state of a deterministic nonlinear system may lead to a huge difference in the subsequent state, which is the Chinese idiom "a tiny mistake can lead to a thousand miles of error". Therefore, it can be said that if you cross back to 312 and buy BTC with all your assets, not to mention your entire assets, it may be because your behavior of buying 1 BTC changed the initial variable. Even if this change is a hundred decimal places, BTC will not rise to 69000. The initial trajectory may still be similar, but after multiple iterations, it will gradually change drastically, and even continue to decline due to your buying. So predictions are meaningless unless you make them but don't trade, which means you don't change the initial variables; 2. Soros' reflexivity: Soros uses the English word Reflexivity, which means that the thoughts of participants and the situations they are involved in do not have complete independence, that is, the roles of cognitive function and participation function are opposite, and the two not only interact with each other, but also determine each other, without any symmetry or correspondence. I don't think it's too complicated to understand the theory of reflexivity. In fact, it can be summarized in one sentence: things are interdependent. Simply put, your trading itself will affect your thoughts, which means that few people can stick to their trading plan to the end, especially when there is a huge floating profit;