
Balaji|May 21, 2025 19:23
SUPERBITCOINIZATION IS ALREADY HERE
“Normal” inflation is 2% per year.
Or roughly 0.2% per month.
And hyperinflation is 50% per month.
So, we aren’t there yet.
It’s all fine!
But is it?
What if we define something in between?
Call it superinflation.
Say superinflation is 5% per month.
In that case…
BTC is up >110,000,000X since Oct 12 2009.
That’s when the first USD/BTC trade happened.
It was at <0.1 cents per BTC back then.
Today it’s 5,701 days later.
And we just hit 109,767.52 per BTC.
An all-time high.
When you work out the math…
Over 187 months...
That’s a monthly compounding rate of 10.41%
Which means USD has devalued against BTC...
…by 10.41% per month..
for more than fifteen years.
That hits the 5% target we defined for superinflation.
So, yes, hyperinflation hasn’t hit yet.
But superinflation against Bitcoin is already here.
We’ve been living through it.
We are in the middle of superbitcoinization.
REFERENCES
[1] On Oct 12, 2009, the first known trade of BTC for USD happened when @marttimalmi traded 5050 BTC for 5.02 USD via Paypal. That established an exchange rate of slightly less than 0.1 US cents per BTC. See the quoted tweet.
[2] Today, on May 21 2025, the price of 1 BTC hit an all time high of 109,767.52 in USD.
[3] To work out the monthly compounding rate:
Let m=187 months btwn Oct 12, 2009 & May 21 2025
Let r=(109,767.52/1)/(5.02/5050), roughly 110-million-fold over that time frame.
To find the compounding rate x such that (1+x)^m = r, you can take logs and get x = exp(ln(110e6)/187)-1, which gets you x = 10.41%.
[4]: Future historians will need to teach their students that the transition from USD to BTC didn't actually happen immediately, even if it will seem instant on a historical scale. As soon as the hardest money around returned to the scene, the USD began to collapse in value against BTC.
There's really only one more order of magnitude to go. You can't even see it on this chart, but we'll see it in real life.
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