Phyrex
Phyrex|May 05, 2025 16:56
Thank you, Brother Guilin. In this regard, I am indeed clearer than skipping classes @ TJResearch01, but I also want to share my own opinions. I would appreciate more guidance from all the experts. We assume that the essence of Trump is to return the manufacturing industry, and the path to achieve it is through: Reduce import tariffs → Reduce trade deficit → Alleviate demand for the US dollar → Weaken the US dollar → Enhance US export competitiveness → Return of manufacturing industry In this way, the US dollar exchange rate is not determined solely by trade. For example, if the US economy continues to thrive in the next period of time, Trump's tariff increases inflation, and the implementation of tax cuts also increases inflation, then the Federal Reserve may continue to maintain high interest rates, or increase interest rates, which may lead to the rise of the US dollar even if the trade deficit is reduced. So from this perspective, the responsibilities of the Federal Reserve and the White House government are different. The Federal Reserve is responsible for maintaining price stability, while the White House is responsible for developing the economy. However, the actual control over interest rates is in the hands of the Federal Reserve, not the White House. So now we can also see that although Trump has begun to fight against Powell, it can only vent its dissatisfaction by abusing the street, rather than directly reducing interest rates by passing the Federal Reserve. So I think it is OK to pull down the dollar through tariffs to allow the manufacturing industry to flow back, but the chain of implementation may not be that simple. Secondly, during the tariff increase (trade war) in the era of Trump 1.0, the US dollar did not depreciate significantly, but remained strong most of the time. So I personally think that the purpose of Trump's tariff reduction may be to reduce inflation, improve the surface data of the stock market and GDP, and make the manufacturing industry more likely to return. For example, today Besant said that Trump won more investment for the United States in 100 days than President Biden won in four years. The main reason is still trade coercion, and in fact, the US dollar is now going back to 100.
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