
Phyrex|Apr 28, 2025 17:13
Is there still a chance for ETH? Looking at the trend of ETH from macro and on chain data (even applicable to the knockoff season)
Although I think ETH still has a chance, the opportunity may not be right now, but rather two possibilities during the period of monetary easing:
In the mid-term of monetary easing, interest rates decrease, inflation decreases, and investors' risk appetite increases, provided that there is no economic recession.
2. In the later or final stage of monetary easing, interest rates have almost bottomed out, inflation has returned to within 2% or even lower, investors' risk appetite has increased, and it is best if an economic recession has already occurred.
From both macro and on chain data perspectives, ETH is currently benefiting from the bottom range. On chain data shows that below $1500 is a good opportunity to buy at the bottom. However, if the macro uncertainty leads to an economic recession, it cannot be ruled out that ETH may continue to decline.
And on chain data also shows a trend of increasing holdings of ETH, including retail investors, giant whales, and super giant whales. Although it is not as obvious as BTC, more on chain investors are indeed buying ETH.
But overall, ETH and Russell 2000 are very similar in that they both require a high degree of liquidity matching, so there may not be sufficient liquidity to provide during monetary tightening, resulting in slow price growth.
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